时 间：7月5日下午 15：00

地 点：九里校区零号楼 0212室

主 题：Frontiers of Decision Theory and Decision Analysis

内容：In this talk,we briefly discuss the history of decision theory and decision analysis, especially of focusing the development of utility theory and its applications in various areas of business. We start by talking about the early stage of the development of expected utility theory. How this model was proposed in St Peterburg’s paradox and its axiomatization by von Neuman and Morgenstern. Then, we discuss how probability as a fundamental concept in decision theory was developed and defined in the history, which include the frequentist vs Bayesian interpretations of probability. We will also discuss differences between decision making under risk, under uncertainty, and under ambiguity. This developments in decision theory and decision analysis keep influence how other areas which requires modeling human’s preferences develop in various disciplines.

主讲人简介：何英博士，南丹麦大学商业与管理学部战略组织设计系副教授。他主要从事两大领域的研究工作:1) 从公理化的角度研究决策理论与决策分析；2)在不同运营管理和其他业务问题中的决策模型及其应用。他于2013年获得得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校管理学博士学位。最近，他主要关注静态和动态环境下的模糊决策。除了建立理论模型，他还将这些模型应用于不同的商业问题研究中。他的研究成果发表在Management Science, Operations Research, Production and Operations Management, European Journal of Operational Research, Journal of Mathematical Economics等顶级期刊上。2019年，他的论文《重新审视Ellsberg和Machina的悖论:歧义下的两阶段评估模型》被选为巴黎经济学院风险、不确定性和决策(RUD) 会议的“Jaffary Lecture”。他于2021年至2024年当选为INFORMS决策分析学会理事会成员。

主办：英国威廉希尔唯一官网 数字化营销与消费者行为科研团队

承办：服务科学与创新四川省重点实验室

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